Ordering the End of the Preceramic in the Maritime Peninsula: A Bayesian Analysis of Radiometric Dates

Conference Paper

Ordering the End of the Preceramic in the Maritime Peninsula: A Bayesian Analysis of Radiometric Dates

Susan Blair

Abstract

Recent research in the estuary of the St. John River valley, of south-central New Brunswick, Canada, has expanded our knowledge of human settlement and behaviour during the Terminal Archaic (Preceramic) and Maritime Woodland (Ceramic) period. When this new information is added to a sequence provided by previously excavated sites (especially Fulton Island BlDn-12 and Cow Point BlDn-2), the result is a suite of 31 radiometric dates ranging from the Late Archaic (3980±70 uncal bp) to the Middle Maritime Woodland period (1590±40 uncal bp). Bayesian statistics can provide insight into relationships between these dates and our models for diachronic patterning in the archaeological record. Using results generated by BCal (a calibration and statistics software program administered by Dr. C. Buck on the University of Sheffield mainframe), I will discuss these relationships and what they suggest about continuity in the archaeological record, both within the lower St. John River sequence, and in terms of broader regional archaeological manifestations during this period of ambiguity in the regional archaeological record.